tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7743874671667983016.post888218082486258716..comments2017-12-20T16:17:40.014-08:00Comments on The Cold Peace Journal: Erdogan's NATO DivorceMeganhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10038273685679942101noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7743874671667983016.post-22658713685443528162017-12-19T12:06:37.053-08:002017-12-19T12:06:37.053-08:00And so the game begins. I read that Turkey is now ...And so the game begins. I read that Turkey is now buying the Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missile batteries instead of American or NATO equivalents. The S-300 is not a plug and play piece of equipment. It requires Russian technicians to set it up, and to train the Turks in its use. It's a little piece of the Russian Army, right there next to the largest NATO airbase in the world. My prediction is that Turkey will leave NATO, tell the EU to go piss off, and forge a new alliance with Russia within the next year. When that happens, the US can either leave the Middle East to try and shore up Europe, or tell the Europeans to up their game and prepare to deal with the Russians themselves. Doing both will no longer be possible. Let's see - seems like there was a reason we did not Germany getting back into the military business....Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12620863387400435172noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7743874671667983016.post-48883422835304188832017-09-08T13:35:45.243-07:002017-09-08T13:35:45.243-07:00Of special strategic value to the Russian Navy are...Of special strategic value to the Russian Navy are the seaports on Turkey's Mediterranean coast. While the bases in Crimea are a necessity to the ability of the Red Fleet to operate in the Middle East and even in the Atlantic, they are still "bottled up" in the Black Sea by the Strait of Bosporus and the Dardanelles. Having bases of operation in deep-water harbors would position the Red Fleet to better project force in the region. <br />But, I suspect the big prize that Uncle Vlad has his eye on is the air base at Incirlik. If the US was kicked out of Incirlik it would severely impact the ability to stage air strikes and even run essential supply missions in the area. It would position the Russian Air Force on the NATO southern flank. The US would be forced to depend on other bases in the area that are in counties that are further away from support bases in Europe. The fact that Turkey, long a secular state, is slowly but definitely moving toward a Muslim theocracy, puts the possibility of Europe having to deal with a unfriendly Muslim power close at hand.<br />There are no good outcomes for Europe or the US should Turkey and Russia form an alliance. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12620863387400435172noreply@blogger.com